What many hoped was an anomaly last season after the ‘Cats limped through a 5-6 campaign is starting to look more like a pattern, as Montana State has limped to an 0-3 start to conference play in the 2016 season. In a bit of unfamiliarity for Bobcat fans used to watching explosive offenses run up and down the field turf of Bobcat Stadium, an inept offense is the biggest culprit for MSU’s latest woes.
A unit that was the marvel of the league last season behind record-setting quarterback Dakota Prukop has been but a shell of its former self, with many explosive weapons remaining largely unused in new offensive coordinator Courtney Messingham’s conservative approach this year. Some of the blame for the uninspiring play-calling can be put squarely on the personnel on the field, namely at the quarterback position, where the ‘Cats have been spoiled for the better part of the past decade, but have struggled with mightily this year. Former four-star recruit Tyler Bruggman was touted as the answer to the loss of Prukop, who transferred to Oregon last winter, but he has been ineffective for most of the season, struggling with accuracy and an ability to move the offense on a consistent basis after a strong start at Idaho to start the year. Enter true freshman, Chris Murray, who electrified the Bobcat faithful with a 187 yard, three touchdown rushing performance versus Sacramento State, but he too has been unable to keep the Bobcat offense on the field due to an inability to make consistent throws, although he was not helped out by a pair of veteran tight ends who dropped two sure touchdowns that would have sealed at Bobcat victory over the Hornets. Another less-than-stellar performance by both signal callers versus NAU leaves the Bobcats’ offense in a perilous position moving forward, leaving many to wonder what the future of the position will look like heading into the final five weeks of the season. For statistical comparison, the 2015 Bobcat offense was the top-scoring unit in the Big Sky, putting up 41.9 points per game. The 2016 unit currently is ranked 9th in the league, averaging just 27.7 points per game.
Last season, MSU put up over 500 yards of offense per outing, again tops in the league, whereas this season, MSU ranks 11th in total offense, gaining just 363 yards per contest. But perhaps the most telling statistic is the fact that MSU ranks dead last in pass efficiency, and is 10th in third-down conversion rate, after finishing second in pass efficiency and third in third-down conversions one season ago. Another humbling statistic is the fact that not a single Bobcat offensive player appears in the Top 10 for any statistical category in the Big Sky Conference, from rushing yards to total offense a game, a far cry from the past. The Bobcats’ offense has been unable to sustain or produce enough scoring drives, particularly late in games, and that has directly resulted in all four of their losses this season. But the issue was never more apparent than in the Sac State game, a contest Montana State controlled throughout, and still led 38-21 heading into the fourth quarter. With a quarterback unable to connect on simple yard and clock-chewing routes, Sacramento State was able to focus their attention on the ‘Cats run game, stuffing MSU on each of the their fourth quarter possessions, pitching a shutout over the final 15 minutes after giving up 38 in the first three quarters, and enabling an offense to attack Montana State’s tired defense to pull the upset. On the bright side for Bobcat fans, the performance on the other side of the ball has been a marked improvement from the past few years of defensive ineptitude.
Whereas the conference statistical lists were filled with Bobcat skill players on the offensive side of the ball, things were quite the opposite for the ‘Cats’ defensive unit. Montana State ranked at, or near the bottom of every major defensive statistic last season, but the tide has turned for MSU and new defensive coordinator Ty Gregorak. Coming into Week 7 of the season, Montana State has the No. 3 ranked overall defense, and is the top scoring defense in the conference, giving up just 20.3 points per game. The Bobcats also lead the league in defensive pass efficiency, and are the No. 3 ranked passing defense overall. MSU sits in the middle of the pack for rushing defenses, giving up 163 yards a game on the ground. That is down from the 216 yards a game they surrendered a year ago. A major point of emphasis for Gregorak and his defensive staff in the offseason was improving the turnover margin in the Bobcats favor. In 2015, MSU forced just 13 turnovers, with only three of those coming via interceptions. The ‘Cats’ overall turnover margin was -2. The increased emphasis has reaped benefits for the Bobcat defense in 2016. Through six games, MSU has forced 16 turnovers, nine of them via interceptions, and they have a turnover margin of +4. In short, the defense has been doing its job to keep the Bobcats in games. Many fans will point to the fact that MSU gave up over 500 yards of offense to a Sacramento State team that had yet to win a game in 2016, but they fail to realize that the Bobcat offense gained just 23 yards on 13 plays without a single first down in the entire fourth quarter of the contest. The defense was gassed, and Sacramento State made them pay for it. Mac Bignell, the junior from Drummond, MT, has been all over the stat sheet for the Bobcats through the first six games. He currently ranks No. 12 in the league in total tackles with 52, is No. 6 in sacks with three, and leads the league in tackles for a loss with nine.
On the back end of the ‘Cats defense, Bryson McCabe has been a steady presence, ranking second in the league in passes defended with seven breakups and one interception, and senior John Walker is ranked second in the league with three interceptions. The opportunity for postseason play has already been lost for the 2016 season, but there is still much to for the Bobcats to play for as they enter the most difficult stretch of their schedule over the final five weeks. After hitting the road to take on a much-improved Weber State team on October 15th, the Bobcats face Eastern Washington (Oct. 22), Southern Utah (Nov. 5), UC Davis (Nov. 12), and the University of Montana (Nov. 19). Southern Utah is the defending Big Sky Conference champions, and has beaten MSU the past two times the teams have met, including a 34-23 beat down in Bozeman last season. There are the two perennial powers in the Big Sky, EWU and UM. The Bobcats have not beaten Eastern since 2011, and they have only topped their rivals, the Grizzlies, once in the past five years as well. Needless to say, the ‘Cats have a difficult stretch ahead of them to finish coach Jeff Choate’s first season in Bozeman. There will be better days ahead for MSU fans, but they may not come this season.
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